NHL · resolved market
AHL: Bakersfield Condors vs. Texas Stars
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ad074b122c559ddbae4139118e124076464f2d9f19c2e05ba259ebfd337e169
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bakersfield Condorsof Bakersfield Condors, Texas Stars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,366 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Bakersfield Condors | 52c | 844.81$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.98 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Texas Stars | 47c | 462.9$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.76 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Bakersfield Condors | 52c | 447.41$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.77 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…e701backed Texas Stars | 47c | 379.3$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Texas Stars | 49c | 227.77$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Texas Stars | 53c | 199.98$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 181 | 32%58 W · 123 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…2964backed Texas Stars | 48c | 194.33$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.17 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Bakersfield Condors | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…553dbacked Texas Stars | 48c | 93.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3c…b4f5backed Bakersfield Condors | 47c | 78.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…4c87backed Bakersfield Condors | 49c | 65.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Texas Stars | 48c | 62.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Bakersfield Condors | 52c | 60.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d7…fb43backed Texas Stars | 48c | 60.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Bakersfield Condors | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed Bakersfield Condors | 49c | 49.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Bakersfield Condors | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ac…5fd6backed Texas Stars | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.