Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Satan666 - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ae069045a413c934fa463f2a952f064af89d73dd769071d50942bd0103fe6ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- WinteR SquadronSof WinteR SquadronS, Satan666
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked Satan666 | 69c | 198.28$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.81 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed WinteR SquadronS | 19c | 181$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.36 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed WinteR SquadronS | 13c | 160$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed WinteR SquadronS | 39c | 146.59$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68f1…1054backed Satan666 | 71c | 121.81$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked WinteR SquadronS | 31c | 119.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.68 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed WinteR SquadronS | 41c | 100.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed WinteR SquadronS | 31c | 84.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked WinteR SquadronS | 31c | 83.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7b…6e9dbacked Satan666 | 47c | 62.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 252 | 46.8%118 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed WinteR SquadronS | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bba…571ebacked Satan666 | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Satan666 - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Satan666 (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group StageWinteR SquadronS won
- Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Satan666 - Game 2 WinnerSatan666 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.