Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Satan666 (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb74d019983250e8b901b8521b2ce1c69f035f728b748e706a2abd3a1d8dbe524
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- WinteR SquadronSof WinteR SquadronS, Satan666
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa62b…0f85backed WinteR SquadronS | 40c | 650.98$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…2282backed WinteR SquadronS | 75c | 528.7$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.71 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed WinteR SquadronS | 32c | 518.88$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.78 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Satan666 | 53c | 469.85$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.18 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Satan666 | 59c | 456.68$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.59 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed WinteR SquadronS | 34c | 411.36$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.5 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe999…12bdbacked Satan666 | 73c | 400$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 181 | 56.4%102 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Satan666 | 33c | 392.6$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.07 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd7…55f5backed Satan666 | 66c | 247.87$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Satan666 | 57c | 246.99$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.64 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed WinteR SquadronS | 71c | 214.51$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked WinteR SquadronS | 40c | 186.3$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.53 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed WinteR SquadronS | 46c | 171.24$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.11 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Satan666 | 62c | 163.89$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.78 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Satan666 | 66c | 146.96$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked Satan666 | 16c | 118.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 149 | 62.4%93 W · 56 L | +21.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Satan666 | 66c | 114.85$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…82a6backed WinteR SquadronS | 33c | 105.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.74 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc25…4e86backed Satan666 | 72c | 101.6$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Satan666 | 57c | 97.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0a…3174backed WinteR SquadronS | 35c | 97.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +186.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c38…a15abacked Satan666 | 63c | 84.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…8b06backed WinteR SquadronS | 42c | 68.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd49…515dbacked Satan666 | 69c | 60.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed Satan666 | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…b03bbacked WinteR SquadronS | 33c | 53.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Satan666 | 56c | 50.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed Satan666 | 48c | 49.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…abebbacked WinteR SquadronS | 55c | 48.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Satan666 | 66c | 47.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked WinteR SquadronS | 26c | 47.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…e007backed WinteR SquadronS | 31c | 44.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…2c42backed WinteR SquadronS | 35c | 38.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…fb90backed Satan666 | 37c | 38.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…4089backed Satan666 | 66c | 36.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked WinteR SquadronS | 40c | 36.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked Satan666 | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…434fbacked WinteR SquadronS | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Satan666 | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801f…3c62backed Satan666 | 42c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…f184backed WinteR SquadronS | 42c | 29.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed WinteR SquadronS | 40c | 28.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x984b…88fbbacked WinteR SquadronS | 54c | 24.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bba…571ebacked Satan666 | 56c | 24.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked Satan666 | 72c | 23.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Satan666 | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…31abbacked Satan666 | 66c | 19.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…0b66backed Satan666 | 74c | 19.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Satan666 | 60c | 18.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed Satan666 | 62c | 18.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Satan666 (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Satan666 - Game 1 WinnerWinteR SquadronS won
- Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Satan666 - Game 2 WinnerSatan666 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.