Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ae6d4b2e1a4fd66a11a4925a1df546e58a0adf7cfed8314168bb37bb0dda293
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed No | 1c | 10,030$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Yes | 37c | 3,942$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,483.68 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 7c | 2,860$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.22 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 71c | 2,029$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.44 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 65c | 1,696$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 50c | 1,533$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.17 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked No | 59c | 889.79$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.98 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…d0b2backed Yes | 36c | 361.11$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 53c | 324.92$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.21 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 60c | 268.28$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.25 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 39c | 250$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.34 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed No | 41c | 244.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked No | 8c | 220.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 40c | 170.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.63 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +6.4wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 61c | 152.79$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.2 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 62c | 149.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 60c | 145.1$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.44 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 36c | 122.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.66 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 42c | 82.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 61c | 59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 61c | 51.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed No | 39c | 46.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed No | 61c | 40.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 60c | 25.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed No | 61c | 24.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6615…3e28backed Yes | 47c | 22.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will VfL Osnabrück win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.