Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Osnabrück win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22cceea56284a657131db03156c4186feaf56d9bdb928df0b7bedf60091f41da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 36c | 3,310$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.23 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 2c | 1,954$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 65c | 1,579$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.87 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 4c | 1,517$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Yes | 36c | 1,259$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.2 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 9c | 1,241$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.81 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked No | 62c | 1,027$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.12 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked No | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 65c | 864.51$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.58 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa212…9161backed Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 34c | 287$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x219a…a647backed No | 72c | 276.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.7wins | -0.54per pick | 74cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b03…b127backed Yes | 19c | 259.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 65c | 209.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +6.4wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3947…63a5backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed No | 66c | 98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 64c | 85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…ce9bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade5…56b1backed No | 66c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 39c | 31.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 63c | 26.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 62c | 22.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…da75backed No | 60c | 20.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 80c | 17.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 64c | 15.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 78c | 13.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Osnabrück win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-08-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.