Asian League · resolved market
Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b00410f1754b15383f1be690d08550e4f7f09f2eb1f155ade8f58eb32b50b24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b5…2d74backed Yes | 57c | 2,351$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.88 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 43c | 1,209$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.67 | 905 | 44.9%406 W · 499 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 43c | 758.91$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.33 | 1,116 | 49.5%552 W · 564 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 47c | 650.43$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.49 | 2,456 | 37.9%931 W · 1,525 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…a565backed Yes | 57c | 610$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 42c | 238.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.5 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed No | 44c | 187.84$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.39 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 41c | 151.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…8e53backed Yes | 74c | 135.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed No | 43c | 74.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 41c | 67.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 1,235 | 49.9%616 W · 619 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 22c | 66.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Yes | 56c | 63.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 43c | 53.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,991 | 54.1%1,078 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 138 | 55.8%77 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0171…0a60backed No | 45c | 43.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed No | 45c | 38.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Yes | 57c | 35.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…01fdbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 43c | 31.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1,766 | 50.2%887 W · 879 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed Yes | 72c | 30.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed No | 44c | 26.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No | 43c | 25.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 706 | 52.3%369 W · 337 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec7…ed98backed No | 44c | 23.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b4…87bfbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -8.8wins | -0.28per pick | 59cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5Over won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 3.5Over won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)Fagiano Okayama won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.