Asian League · resolved market
Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98cc2ce737a3dda0ff469742288f19884a331def30982a35790e8a64b72f3996
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 22c | 3,325$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,580.96 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6982…a165backed Under | 78c | 2,472$1,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,927.71 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 10c | 1,108$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.09 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 67c | 298.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9e…3cb9backed Under | 69c | 210.5$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x750b…609fbacked Under | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 13c | 187.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.96 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 31c | 158.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.08 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 64c | 152.86$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.83 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…1938backed Under | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 67c | 79.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 31c | 52.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 24c | 46.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 88 | 6.8%6 W · 82 L | -22.0wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -78%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 73c | 43.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…37b0backed Under | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5325…c31dbacked Under | 67c | 39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…b695backed Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Under | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5this page
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5Over won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)Fagiano Okayama won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.