Asian League · resolved market
Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4085879916503220e86eca153156374706408ce7f9d66a594acd66c69aa90d36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 48c | 5,093$2,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,648.53 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 52c | 2,324$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.38 | 1,235 | 49.9%616 W · 619 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c6b0backed Under | 60c | 2,009$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 53c | 1,719$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.78 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9e…3cb9backed Under | 38c | 1,148$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…fb89backed Under | 51c | 966.95$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 51c | 894.61$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.63 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…dac0backed Over | 49c | 718.16$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.95 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 63c | 590.51$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.08 | 2,456 | 37.9%931 W · 1,525 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Under | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 550.12$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.1 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 424.6$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.37 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 53c | 400.64$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.11 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd4…51b1backed Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Under | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Under | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 45c | 294.04$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.94 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Under | 51c | 220.49$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.45 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -7.3wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…3c43backed Over | 65c | 169.23$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 49c | 164.01$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.41 | 1,766 | 50.2%887 W · 879 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…1fe2backed Over | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbffb…a60ebacked Under | 34c | 135$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -7.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 60c | 130.83$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 905 | 44.9%406 W · 499 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 49c | 110$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 49c | 102.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 1,991 | 54.1%1,078 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 49c | 101.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x140e…cf85backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…20b4backed Over | 46c | 98.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 59c | 95.76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 706 | 52.3%369 W · 337 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 46c | 91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +18%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 346 | 59.8%207 W · 139 L | +49.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…d4e2backed Over | 77c | 57.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Under | 22c | 55.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 48c | 54.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a84…4406backed Over | 40c | 52.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 71c | 49.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 96 | 72.9%70 W · 26 L | +19.3wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 50c | 48.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Under | 46c | 46.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 55c | 45.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Over | 48c | 43.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Under | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa52…eababacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.9wins | -0.30per pick | 49cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 56c | 38.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 207 | 69.6%144 W · 63 L | +31.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Over | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…3afdbacked Over | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x819b…6a57backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab35…118dbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 565 | 45.5%257 W · 308 L | -24.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…4186backed Over | 59c | 19.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed Over | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5this page
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 3.5Over won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)Fagiano Okayama won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.