Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: yache123 vs Team Essence (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b359aa03c931f78979daba4daac8107b9deafba2e64272dae29e03ea93f6f00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Essenceof yache123, Team Essence
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0fbc…d6a4backed yache123 | 76c | 1,312$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.69 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3568…c765backed yache123 | 70c | 760$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Team Essence | 30c | 760$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Team Essence | 26c | 300$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 569 | 55.5%316 W · 253 L | +22.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Team Essence | 31c | 225.31$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.99 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Team Essence | 40c | 129.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.94 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed yache123 | 37c | 128.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b8…c5cabacked Team Essence | 57c | 106.76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Team Essence | 33c | 89.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed yache123 | 32c | 86.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed yache123 | 54c | 77.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b2…0ab9backed Team Essence | 58c | 68.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6827…26fdbacked Team Essence | 43c | 61.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25f…32c9backed Team Essence | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9120…ae70backed Team Essence | 56c | 32.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb841…3cfbbacked Team Essence | 56c | 28.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.35per pick | 54cpaid | +149.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb0…c7e6backed Team Essence | 58c | 20.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…50b7backed Team Essence | 75c | 19.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.