CS2 · resolved market
IEM Dallas: MOUZ vs. Falcons
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b484f3fd4d93c2e67a21ced2166ce94976a4eea178ad6b559fb990754f440b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof MOUZ, Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Falcons | 0c | 23,136$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2f…8baebacked Falcons | 62c | 16,993$10,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,505.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked MOUZ | 38c | 9,639$3,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,967.62 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked MOUZ | 37c | 9,092$3,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,688.66 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Falcons | 63c | 7,619$4,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,827.87 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked MOUZ | 41c | 5,844$2,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,422.65 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…390fbacked Falcons | 62c | 4,856$3,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,009.78 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked MOUZ | 39c | 4,205$1,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,568.13 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…901abacked MOUZ | 43c | 2,931$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,663.95 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Falcons | 53c | 1,983$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.53 | 160 | 33.8%54 W · 106 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed MOUZ | 48c | 1,292$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed MOUZ | 41c | 1,261$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.61 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889d…19bcbacked Falcons | 62c | 1,136$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd225…c3d4backed Falcons | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754f…5814backed Falcons | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7385…e780backed MOUZ | 38c | 895$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Falcons | 15c | 871.46$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.19 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…208cbacked MOUZ | 38c | 815$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…3e37backed MOUZ | 38c | 580$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Falcons | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x863d…4770backed Falcons | 21c | 476.52$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…9d23backed Falcons | 62c | 450$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed Falcons | 41c | 444.63$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.51 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…0055backed Falcons | 48c | 443$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.18 | 178 | 47.8%85 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked MOUZ | 60c | 386.72$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.69 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Falcons | 27c | 339.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.79 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29db…ae12backed MOUZ | 39c | 310.64$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.49 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…4875backed Falcons | 62c | 310$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked MOUZ | 36c | 289.01$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.86 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2d…6ae3backed Falcons | 58c | 256.23$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.61 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6328…1375backed Falcons | 61c | 246.9$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.61 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06cb…3e31backed MOUZ | 38c | 235$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed MOUZ | 48c | 228.49$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.61 | 754 | 50.5%381 W · 373 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed MOUZ | 41c | 215$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.85 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed MOUZ | 43c | 210.32$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.02 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d03…4efabacked Falcons | 67c | 201.84$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked MOUZ | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa06a…2aa7backed MOUZ | 42c | 185$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8050…49ffbacked MOUZ | 38c | 185$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aef…b1d9backed Falcons | 62c | 175$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…4cbbbacked MOUZ | 38c | 170$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked MOUZ | 36c | 129$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…869bbacked MOUZ | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed MOUZ | 61c | 107.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f33…b313backed MOUZ | 38c | 105$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84aa…74ebbacked MOUZ | 42c | 105$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked MOUZ | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…4275backed MOUZ | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed MOUZ | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed MOUZ | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4409…bc0bbacked MOUZ | 39c | 99.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…2b2cbacked Falcons | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked MOUZ | 43c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed MOUZ | 39c | 69.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7b…892dbacked Falcons | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed MOUZ | 71c | 62.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26bb…6f44backed MOUZ | 52c | 58.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3b…9d46backed Falcons | 62c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8f…df31backed Falcons | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2c…0ecbbacked Falcons | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked MOUZ | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 249 | 43.8%109 W · 140 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8761…7936backed Falcons | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…9d21backed Falcons | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72f…ada8backed Falcons | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked Falcons | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…fe86backed Falcons | 60c | 21.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1326…4289backed MOUZ | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…c364backed Falcons | 65c | 15.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.