Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Tondela win on 2026-03-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b4a403eb8a36486411bb70972b540f712a88024bb0bec4865a2c9facfec5b7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,331 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 58c | 7,545$4,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,159.72 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes | 51c | 5,555$2,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,833.05 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 42c | 4,671$1,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,941.31 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 58c | 1,819$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 38c | 1,249$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.97 | 136 | 26.5%36 W · 100 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 59c | 1,099$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.75 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 53c | 975.53$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.99 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 52c | 382.68$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 265 | 49.4%131 W · 134 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Yes | 26c | 236$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 221.51$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 52c | 216.46$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.44 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 51c | 194.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.11 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed No | 48c | 192.61$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.16 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 30c | 166.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 47c | 133.68$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.85 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 14c | 114.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 306 | 56.2%172 W · 134 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 63c | 100.11$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 52c | 92.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 36c | 82.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…593dbacked Yes | 53c | 80.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 29c | 80.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 328 | 35.4%116 W · 212 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 60c | 80.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 341 | 58.9%201 W · 140 L | +25.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 25c | 75.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 583 | 20.1%117 W · 466 L | -37.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5786…e309backed No | 49c | 62.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a30…b094backed Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 53c | 60.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 292 | 44.9%131 W · 161 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69c…44dbbacked Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Yes | 33c | 51.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 478 | 42.9%205 W · 273 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed No | 56c | 51.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed No | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 47c | 47.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bf25backed Yes | 46c | 43.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b77…1953backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31a9…118cbacked No | 61c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 63c | 36.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 39c | 34.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Yes | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 124 | 56.5%70 W · 54 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Tondela win on 2026-03-21?this page
- Will AVS Futebol win on 2026-03-21?No won
- Will CD Tondela vs. AVS Futebol end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.