Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Air Force Falcons (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b67f616339eae67c6f4611d7b930acdb78e24d9e50bfaf8fb48f29cc442fb0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Air Force Falconsof Air Force Falcons, Alabama State Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Alabama State Hornets | 43c | 228$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Alabama State Hornets | 48c | 190$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Air Force Falcons | 52c | 145$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.92 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Alabama State Hornets | 45c | 128$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Air Force Falcons | 57c | 84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…b38dbacked Air Force Falcons | 57c | 62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Alabama State Hornets | 44c | 57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Air Force Falcons | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…aeb8backed Air Force Falcons | 55c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Air Force Falcons | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Air Force Falcons | 55c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Air Force Falcons | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -6.2wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Air Force Falcons | 56c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Alabama State Hornets | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…e26cbacked Air Force Falcons | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Air Force Falcons (-1.5)this page
- Alabama State Hornets vs. Air Force FalconsAir Force Falcons won
- Alabama State Hornets vs. Air Force Falcons: O/U 137.5Under won
- Alabama State Hornets vs. Air Force Falcons: O/U 140.5Under won
- Spread: Air Force Falcons (-3.5)Alabama State Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.