CS2 · resolved market
BLAST.tv Austin Major: Aurora vs. G2
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b91d1b014c9016b7031bb4a124eb98559e54aef2fed5398e84ee6dd1d10faa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- G2of Aurora, G2
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dcb…3e9ebacked Aurora | 70c | 7,092$4,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,935.3 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked G2 | 58c | 5,686$3,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,388.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked G2 | 31c | 5,242$1,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,634.17 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed G2 | 34c | 3,173$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,098.15 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +6.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Aurora | 66c | 2,350$1,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,551 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0394…3ef9backed Aurora | 7c | 1,101$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Aurora | 47c | 1,069$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506 | 817 | 51.7%422 W · 395 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Aurora | 64c | 999.99$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6f…4999backed G2 | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b1…d855backed G2 | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked G2 | 32c | 800$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544 | 160 | 33.8%54 W · 106 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed G2 | 58c | 659.48$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.98 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed G2 | 34c | 652.98$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.97 | 608 | 48%292 W · 316 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…200bbacked Aurora | 68c | 600$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.38 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked G2 | 36c | 554.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.05 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed G2 | 37c | 537.05$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.34 | 282 | 48.9%138 W · 144 L | +21.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed G2 | 38c | 494.39$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.41 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked Aurora | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Aurora | 66c | 426$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.16 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Aurora | 65c | 400$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Aurora | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 131 | 46.6%61 W · 70 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x089e…6e0ebacked Aurora | 70c | 286.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…ffb8backed Aurora | 66c | 280$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.6 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Aurora | 7c | 274.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed Aurora | 49c | 260$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.6 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Aurora | 34c | 241.18$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Aurora | 43c | 230.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed Aurora | 64c | 210.94$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.94 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Aurora | 65c | 210$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 353 | 41.6%147 W · 206 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5be2…8fa3backed Aurora | 65c | 158.63$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.11 | 217 | 62.7%136 W · 81 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00c1…5b99backed Aurora | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed Aurora | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…7d47backed Aurora | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…de5abacked Aurora | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 244 | 40.6%99 W · 145 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed G2 | 42c | 145.24$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 225 | 56%126 W · 99 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf7…de52backed Aurora | 67c | 122.42$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b7…8d7dbacked Aurora | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed G2 | 33c | 88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked G2 | 31c | 67.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked G2 | 50c | 66.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Aurora | 63c | 54.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842e…074cbacked Aurora | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1702…24d6backed G2 | 37c | 46.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Aurora | 69c | 42.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…5a9dbacked G2 | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed G2 | 31c | 42.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 317 | 35.6%113 W · 204 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…93aebacked Aurora | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa4…b3f0backed Aurora | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed Aurora | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…c566backed Aurora | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x462a…8b5cbacked Aurora | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.