NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Bucks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4be529647c887421917cda87eb0dd930805917cd7cc7fc961d8b68c1c56f5004
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Bucks | 35c | 7,980$2,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,784.46 | 258 | 47.3%122 W · 136 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Thunder | 64c | 5,458$3,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,970.99 | 1,316 | 50.5%664 W · 652 L | +42.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Thunder | 60c | 1,925$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.01 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bucks | 36c | 1,811$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Thunder | 64c | 1,475$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Thunder | 64c | 1,269$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.15 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Bucks | 31c | 1,049$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.22 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Thunder | 62c | 937.64$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.47 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Bucks | 35c | 914.81$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.18 | 121 | 43%52 W · 69 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Thunder | 70c | 900$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dd…61dcbacked Thunder | 74c | 694.77$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.64 | 124 | 58.9%73 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Thunder | 66c | 683$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.57 | 815 | 29.4%240 W · 575 L | -37.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Thunder | 66c | 670$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.9 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…fc97backed Bucks | 33c | 669$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.05 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Bucks | 40c | 649.86$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.57 | 480 | 46%221 W · 259 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…01fabacked Bucks | 35c | 639.84$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.94 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Thunder | 63c | 623.56$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.02 | 736 | 47.3%348 W · 388 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Thunder | 54c | 500$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Bucks | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Thunder | 54c | 450.55$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.39 | 1,409 | 40.2%567 W · 842 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc34…8e75backed Bucks | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Thunder | 64c | 317.25$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.63 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ce…bca1backed Bucks | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 347 | 47%163 W · 184 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 65c | 233.43$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Bucks | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 345 | 24.3%84 W · 261 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Thunder | 53c | 190$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Bucks | 55c | 170.66$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.86 | 367 | 47.7%175 W · 192 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Bucks | 35c | 105.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 184 | 50.5%93 W · 91 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Bucks | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b0…5e50backed Bucks | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Bucks | 33c | 54.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 285 | 48.4%138 W · 147 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…0ccbbacked Thunder | 64c | 54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…58eebacked Thunder | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3804…6136backed Thunder | 65c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 267 | 49.8%133 W · 134 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Bucks | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4064…6b1dbacked Thunder | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfa…bfe0backed Thunder | 66c | 15.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.