Serie A · resolved market
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4be593b952e1d732b466b3c73846abf2748d6c703bcb4d082b7f930c576d274c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AS Romaof AS Roma, US Cremonese
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed US Cremonese | 67c | 480.94$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.65 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked AS Roma | 32c | 391$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.88 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95db…dc65backed AS Roma | 31c | 158.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked AS Roma | 29c | 75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked AS Roma | 31c | 71.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed US Cremonese | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked US Cremonese | 68c | 57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed AS Roma | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed AS Roma | 48c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca8…1148backed US Cremonese | 69c | 41.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…ac33backed AS Roma | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5f…933ebacked US Cremonese | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed US Cremonese | 69c | 17.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)this page
- US Cremonese vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Cremonese vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.