Serie A · resolved market
US Cremonese vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd3ef416b0f06e26f4f575b4d092d82cc272da832ac8f52b12b0e92d9d379d66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 52c | 1,145$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.83 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 993.19$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.3 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Under | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Under | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 380$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.6 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Over | 38c | 330$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.6 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Over | 47c | 300$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.1 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 44c | 289.87$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.95 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ee…fb4fbacked Under | 57c | 176.54$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 54c | 157.43$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Under | 56c | 110.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 339 | 51.6%175 W · 164 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 39c | 102$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Under | 56c | 87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 49c | 85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 42c | 71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 101 | 52.5%53 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 35c | 62.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 48c | 52.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Over | 50c | 52.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Over | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Over | 67c | 47.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed Over | 50c | 37.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce0…5fcabacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d7…95d4backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca8…1148backed Under | 56c | 25.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Cremonese vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)AS Roma won
- US Cremonese vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.