South American Leagues · resolved market
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Vitória: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c2ca9593a3006717a4ab559c60e2876e3f6882baf999dd0a1679e7de456d709
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 34c | 588$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Yes | 66c | 249.31$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.76 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…692abacked No | 49c | 221.58$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 51c | 213.13$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.86 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 21c | 149.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.26 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Yes | 66c | 142.53$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 67c | 129.34$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Yes | 66c | 128.62$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 77c | 108.4$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 46c | 92.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bd…c88dbacked Yes | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba2d…2f32backed No | 34c | 75.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 33c | 69.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Yes | 66c | 55.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 88 | 87.5%77 W · 11 L | +19.9wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +42%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Yes | 65c | 49.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed No | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Yes | 53c | 31.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Yes | 53c | 19.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 70c | 15.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Vitória: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Vitória: O/U 2.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Vitória: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-2.5)EC Vitória won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.