South American Leagues · resolved market
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96d7802792d6faac14cc0401adaf33f79d6630282cd93d6209c10e7dacbbd1b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 68c | 3,379$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300.31 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 32c | 2,900$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,971.99 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 39c | 1,282$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.05 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 61c | 1,235$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.24 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 13c | 1,056$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.48 | 200 | 22.5%45 W · 155 L | -13.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 68c | 361.65$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.04 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 72c | 205.65$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 29c | 197.78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 56c | 177.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…c46abacked Over | 49c | 156.43$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.45 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +10.2wins | +0.27per pick | 55cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 72c | 107.17$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 66c | 97.96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 68c | 94.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.19 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 75c | 81$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 74.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 28c | 72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 43c | 56.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b3cbacked Over | 37c | 52.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 34c | 48.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 62c | 47.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 29c | 42.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7be…908dbacked Under | 66c | 20.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea77…686ebacked Over | 71c | 20.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…7703backed Over | 53c | 18.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 69c | 14.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5this page
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Vitória: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Vitória: O/U 2.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Vitória: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-2.5)EC Vitória won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.