Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Fils (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c30c23123df5ea980d47559acde421de6a85e6b5cdd8cb599af45a0afc9ccce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Filsof Auger-Aliassime, Fils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,433 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Fils | 69c | 2,273$1,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.97 | 441 | 63.7%281 W · 160 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…a473backed Fils | 67c | 2,037$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.77 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Auger-Aliassime | 31c | 1,155$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.74 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Auger-Aliassime | 32c | 840$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.6 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Auger-Aliassime | 32c | 806.63$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.08 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Auger-Aliassime | 33c | 758.25$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.22 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Auger-Aliassime | 32c | 600$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 223 | 37.7%84 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Fils | 67c | 373.13$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.13 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Auger-Aliassime | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3a…df40backed Auger-Aliassime | 32c | 177.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 238 | 47.1%112 W · 126 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…facabacked Fils | 68c | 166.79$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked Auger-Aliassime | 9c | 157.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759c…05e2backed Fils | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 196 | 49%96 W · 100 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Auger-Aliassime | 32c | 137.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 328 | 42.7%140 W · 188 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x998c…6f97backed Fils | 68c | 125$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…0b73backed Auger-Aliassime | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…566bbacked Auger-Aliassime | 34c | 85.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…4f78backed Auger-Aliassime | 34c | 82.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Auger-Aliassime | 32c | 78.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…8bb1backed Auger-Aliassime | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Auger-Aliassime | 24c | 61.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Auger-Aliassime | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…3422backed Fils | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Fils | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Fils (+1.5)this page
- Arthur Fils vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- BNP Paribas Open: Arthur Fils vs Felix Auger-AliassimeArthur Fils won
- Fils vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Fils vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Fils vs. Auger-Aliassime: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Fils vs. Auger-Aliassime: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Fils vs Auger-AliassimeFils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.