NHL · resolved market
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c556aff31bb18412a747434e96d368c0fccfa3f09f5fc6835265f11c8d7db13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Marliesof Toronto Marlies, Chicago Wolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Chicago Wolves | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 397 | 50.6%201 W · 196 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Chicago Wolves | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Chicago Wolves | 63c | 944$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.18 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…055bbacked Toronto Marlies | 31c | 656.52$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Chicago Wolves | 27c | 480$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.09 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…7784backed Chicago Wolves | 57c | 323.29$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.56 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Toronto Marlies | 75c | 169.98$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Toronto Marlies | 78c | 143$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 173 | 63%109 W · 64 L | +16.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Toronto Marlies | 43c | 134.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Toronto Marlies | 30c | 124.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +65%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Chicago Wolves | 57c | 114.86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Chicago Wolves | 24c | 110.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7381…5b63backed Toronto Marlies | 28c | 106.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 600 | 42.8%257 W · 343 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Chicago Wolves | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Toronto Marlies | 53c | 96.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf647…0ccbbacked Toronto Marlies | 79c | 96$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 45cpaid | +88%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Chicago Wolves | 19c | 94.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf84b…6455backed Chicago Wolves | 25c | 91.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Chicago Wolves | 47c | 82.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ab49backed Toronto Marlies | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Chicago Wolves | 14c | 80.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Chicago Wolves | 14c | 78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Toronto Marlies | 65c | 77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Chicago Wolves | 65c | 67.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…c192backed Chicago Wolves | 53c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Chicago Wolves | 70c | 56.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Toronto Marlies | 43c | 55.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Toronto Marlies | 66c | 42.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Marlies | 54c | 41.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Toronto Marlies | 43c | 39.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Chicago Wolves | 40c | 37.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Toronto Marlies | 42c | 36.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…79c3backed Toronto Marlies | 43c | 25.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Toronto Marlies | 43c | 25.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…7475backed Chicago Wolves | 50c | 24.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b6…072dbacked Toronto Marlies | 50c | 24.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…7bb6backed Chicago Wolves | 50c | 21.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d3…5a6bbacked Toronto Marlies | 50c | 21.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Chicago Wolves | 51c | 19.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Toronto Marlies | 65c | 16.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Toronto Marlies | 68c | 15.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.