NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c9aa5c85901875fae2e745ff343ac74ad32139a8d48914b65a4959a518d261f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Over | 55c | 9,054$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,054.33 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 7,228$3,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,233.85 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 55c | 4,427$2,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,007.16 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 46c | 2,500$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 53c | 1,541$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.83 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 44c | 1,528$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.31 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9659…f19abacked Under | 47c | 1,438$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 46c | 927$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.42 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 45c | 443.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 45c | 396.24$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.13 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 45c | 392$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 312 | 57.4%179 W · 133 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…4508backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 44c | 76.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x499e…c968backed Over | 55c | 69.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 53c | 54.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 55c | 28.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Over | 56c | 26.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Over | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -6.2wins | -0.32per pick | 54cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5this page
- Penguins vs. FlyersPenguins won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.