NHL · resolved market
Spread: Flyers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26fdc62c95a34887dd07dd79998205eb2b41035a637d4c7486475a0029ee7533
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penguinsof Flyers, Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Flyers | 34c | 541$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.27 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Penguins | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Penguins | 68c | 404.88$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.3 | 130 | 60%78 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Flyers | 37c | 351$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.72 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Penguins | 63c | 346$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.02 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Penguins | 66c | 327.12$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.22 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ee…fb4fbacked Flyers | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Flyers | 32c | 273.34$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.47 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Flyers | 33c | 249.97$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.49 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Flyers | 34c | 192$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Penguins | 69c | 166$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Penguins | 66c | 160$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Penguins | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Flyers | 31c | 114.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Flyers | 33c | 74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Penguins | 68c | 68.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Flyers | 32c | 57.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Penguins | 65c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Flyers | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Flyers | 32c | 42.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -6.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed Penguins | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…bb64backed Penguins | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Penguins | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)this page
- Penguins vs. FlyersPenguins won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.