NHL · resolved market
Spread: Sabres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cd727a306cead167f0a99b069e3f6528769e193d91523da3a518a61c69f1c16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flamesof Sabres, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf01…0f44backed Sabres | 38c | 311.03$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Sabres | 38c | 269$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.37 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Sabres | 38c | 163.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Flames | 62c | 154$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Flames | 62c | 151.86$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Sabres | 34c | 113.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Flames | 63c | 93.46$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Sabres | 34c | 67.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Sabres | 27c | 57.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 310 | 47.4%147 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…0d00backed Flames | 66c | 48.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…f95dbacked Flames | 66c | 48.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Flames | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab50…8f27backed Flames | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Flames | 63c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Flames | 57c | 36.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Flames | 67c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2d…24c8backed Flames | 65c | 30.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c26…1dddbacked Flames | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Flames | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Flames | 63c | 28.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Sabres | 37c | 28.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Flames | 62c | 26.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Flames | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…85bfbacked Flames | 66c | 19.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)this page
- Flames vs. SabresFlames won
- Flames vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.