NHL · resolved market
Flames vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3df2161f2521f31c6bc5814b2c90356030a1a233a9824b43ae4810d0bb393a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d6c…853cbacked Over | 47c | 12,500$5,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,625 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4b…7b18backed Over | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +52%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…c9fabacked Over | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb12…4c15backed Under | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfda1…6253backed Over | 48c | 4,600$2,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,392 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67d8…0649backed Under | 52c | 4,600$2,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,392 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d9…878fbacked Under | 53c | 4,500$2,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,385 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36a0…fb7ebacked Under | 53c | 4,500$2,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,385 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1be6…67a7backed Under | 53c | 4,500$2,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,385 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Over | 45c | 4,124$1,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,268.46 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2b…0a52backed Under | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 56c | 3,996$2,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,237.76 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 2,586$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405.88 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 55c | 2,170$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.62 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Over | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 44c | 1,613$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.28 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Under | 55c | 560$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 48c | 417.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.08 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 46c | 347.93$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.88 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 52c | 149.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 44c | 117$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked Under | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 47c | 85.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c55…9d52backed Over | 54c | 78.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Under | 54c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 45c | 72.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 52c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 45c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…94e2backed Under | 54c | 54.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa443…e0e4backed Over | 48c | 54.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 45c | 52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3496…cf74backed Over | 48c | 49.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…af94backed Under | 54c | 45.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc25c…79bfbacked Over | 48c | 42.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e11…2c11backed Over | 48c | 42.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7936…78b1backed Over | 48c | 41.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Under | 54c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…fcb4backed Over | 46c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 52c | 40.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3be…8839backed Under | 54c | 40.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…ec97backed Under | 54c | 38.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 45c | 27.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 224 | 43.3%97 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…02b3backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flames vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5this page
- Flames vs. SabresFlames won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.