Tennis · resolved market
US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Sumit Nagal
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cf7f6daf34e24e332b7c8bb6ab417e0943a4b886d6460bc5d6cc4c25924b902
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arthur Geaof Arthur Gea, Sumit Nagal
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3bd2…fa7fbacked Sumit Nagal | 17c | 13,519$2,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,317.15 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Sumit Nagal | 15c | 7,482$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.74 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Sumit Nagal | 18c | 6,455$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.15 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Sumit Nagal | 14c | 4,066$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.55 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f4…b38ebacked Sumit Nagal | 20c | 3,438$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Sumit Nagal | 8c | 2,103$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.09 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Sumit Nagal | 10c | 1,631$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.28 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14a2…704cbacked Sumit Nagal | 14c | 1,471$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 144 | 18.1%26 W · 118 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbe…ae0ebacked Sumit Nagal | 14c | 691.2$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Sumit Nagal | 14c | 690.66$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.69 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x136b…c35abacked Arthur Gea | 77c | 380$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Sumit Nagal | 7c | 333.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed Sumit Nagal | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Sumit Nagal | 9c | 316.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…9c8dbacked Sumit Nagal | 6c | 311$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Sumit Nagal | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Sumit Nagal | 17c | 291.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Sumit Nagal | 11c | 284.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Arthur Gea | 79c | 271.67$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 883 | 58.2%514 W · 369 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…bb9ebacked Sumit Nagal | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdd…db30backed Sumit Nagal | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 187 | 24.6%46 W · 141 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Sumit Nagal | 14c | 167$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Sumit Nagal | 11c | 165.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 360 | 40%144 W · 216 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Sumit Nagal | 13c | 131.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…da3bbacked Sumit Nagal | 11c | 117.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 274 | 48.5%133 W · 141 L | +24.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Sumit Nagal | 13c | 105.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Arthur Gea | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Sumit Nagal | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 648 | 37.5%243 W · 405 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Sumit Nagal | 17c | 90.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Arthur Gea | 79c | 77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 429 | 46.4%199 W · 230 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Arthur Gea | 80c | 69.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 232 | 56.5%131 W · 101 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Sumit Nagalthis page
- Set Handicap: Gea (-1.5) vs Nagal (+1.5)Gea won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.