College Football · resolved market
Middle Tennessee vs. Nevada
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d3c0ee8f018b42a2613e8397e8ac36dcbde15469f4d78548fa1848015f4a88f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Middle Tennesseeof Middle Tennessee, Nevada
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Middle Tennessee | 26c | 1,097$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.32 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Nevada | 80c | 448.41$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.89 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Nevada | 63c | 300$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Middle Tennessee | 32c | 217.51$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.98 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Nevada | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Middle Tennessee | 25c | 196.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.22 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…5d2cbacked Nevada | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Middle Tennessee | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a29…c0b6backed Nevada | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Middle Tennessee | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Middle Tennessee | 19c | 88.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.26 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Middle Tennessee | 24c | 81.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d7…261bbacked Nevada | 76c | 81.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77cd…5a13backed Nevada | 77c | 78.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Nevada | 74c | 76.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0463…d029backed Middle Tennessee | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Nevada | 67c | 51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Middle Tennessee | 32c | 44.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.