Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Rio Ave FC win on 2025-12-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d40887f794dee7f40a348e28bf60997f5ca3bab789ef7095726ac537a25aa7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 60c | 15,075$9,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,970.89 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 51c | 10,359$5,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,283.17 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6603…959ebacked Yes | 72c | 4,599$3,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,311.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 16c | 1,798$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.72 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 37c | 1,154$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.35 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked No | 28c | 1,078$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.45 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 68c | 637.71$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 76c | 423$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.09 | 511 | 40.9%209 W · 302 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 26c | 412.01$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.81 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 79c | 255.57$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.06 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 30c | 220.83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.48 | 192 | 41.7%80 W · 112 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked Yes | 15c | 199.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 17c | 148.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…1ca9backed Yes | 71c | 140.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Yes | 22c | 94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Yes | 19c | 78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Yes | 19c | 67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed Yes | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 19c | 54.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed No | 51c | 53.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3838…2c6fbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 65c | 44.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 212 | 56.6%120 W · 92 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 26c | 41.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -17.3wins | -0.28per pick | 33cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 28-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 68c | 28.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rio Ave FC win on 2025-12-20?this page
- Will Gil Vicente FC vs. Rio Ave FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2025-12-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.