Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d5c59bb9df531295dbb27db5c4b21c74cc6ad54f582cab70799a685afc4df22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 906.52$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 38c | 307.29$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.2 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 16c | 280.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 46c | 229.65$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.03 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 198.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 21c | 183.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.21 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 16c | 182.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.28 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 178.95$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 135.6$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 77c | 118.5$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 46c | 107.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.03 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.27 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 97.48$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 29c | 88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 21c | 86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 25c | 85.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 78.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 71c | 49.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 74c | 35.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 75c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 44c | 31.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 57c | 30.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 80c | 27.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40be…e067backed Yes | 72c | 26.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 78c | 25.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 76c | 25.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 76c | 25.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 76c | 23.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 80c | 17.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 69c | 15.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5a…a270backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 79c | 13.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.78 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089d…ef1cbacked No | 80c | 12.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.