Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
SMU Mustangs vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 161.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d8276646472c72aedab136e0eb31685b5067f71cd142b808f6068275155770d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 52c | 25,049$13,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,965.46 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 11,401$5,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,460.76 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 11,104$5,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,264.25 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 50c | 479.15$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.44 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 46c | 326.08$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 583 | 45.5%265 W · 318 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 304$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.16 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Over | 54c | 204.4$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.98 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 139 | 40.3%56 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 47c | 200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 441 | 46.5%205 W · 236 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 49c | 115$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -9.2wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -26%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 198 | 51.5%102 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 74.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed Over | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 56c | 27.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Over | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +32%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Under | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 316 | 66.1%209 W · 107 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c17bbacked Under | 46c | 22.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…c747backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SMU Mustangs vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 161.5this page
- SMU Mustangs vs. Louisville CardinalsLouisville Cardinals won
- Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-9.5)Louisville Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.