Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
SMU Mustangs vs. Louisville Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x799de52b089b3342aadf658f9cb9755db415f091d0556b30449ab024a538c2b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Louisville Cardinalsof SMU Mustangs, Louisville Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Louisville Cardinals | 73c | 14,742$10,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,025.49 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed SMU Mustangs | 15c | 5,471$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.52 | 1,074 | 43.3%465 W · 609 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Louisville Cardinals | 72c | 3,797$2,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.62 | 1,058 | 55.8%590 W · 468 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed SMU Mustangs | 29c | 3,422$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked SMU Mustangs | 25c | 2,906$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.59 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked SMU Mustangs | 19c | 2,632$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…9390backed SMU Mustangs | 29c | 2,590$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SMU Mustangs | 33c | 2,028$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.8 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked SMU Mustangs | 27c | 1,601$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.55 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked SMU Mustangs | 30c | 1,325$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.93 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Louisville Cardinals | 75c | 1,029$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.98 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…caa2backed SMU Mustangs | 17c | 689.86$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.19 | 253 | 25.3%64 W · 189 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…ce81backed Louisville Cardinals | 72c | 679.3$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Louisville Cardinals | 79c | 636$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.56 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed SMU Mustangs | 37c | 625.94$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.51 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…cf1bbacked SMU Mustangs | 15c | 598.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Louisville Cardinals | 70c | 581.79$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.85 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed SMU Mustangs | 42c | 494$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.48 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed SMU Mustangs | 29c | 456.41$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 230 | 28.3%65 W · 165 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc923…a27fbacked SMU Mustangs | 27c | 440.37$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ac…ef52backed SMU Mustangs | 21c | 350$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked SMU Mustangs | 35c | 326.1$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.17 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked SMU Mustangs | 31c | 321.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 453 | 51.4%233 W · 220 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60c6…5051backed SMU Mustangs | 32c | 246.16$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed SMU Mustangs | 34c | 244.59$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.32 | 668 | 31.4%210 W · 458 L | -43.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked SMU Mustangs | 26c | 224.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be6…05b1backed SMU Mustangs | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Louisville Cardinals | 59c | 220$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 722 | 48.8%352 W · 370 L | -23.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed SMU Mustangs | 28c | 217.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…afbcbacked SMU Mustangs | 36c | 208.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 703 | 49.6%349 W · 354 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked SMU Mustangs | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Louisville Cardinals | 76c | 198.6$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…ea3dbacked SMU Mustangs | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Louisville Cardinals | 58c | 147.49$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 558 | 40.3%225 W · 333 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked SMU Mustangs | 26c | 142.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 870 | 47.2%411 W · 459 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Louisville Cardinals | 58c | 115.96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…7adebacked SMU Mustangs | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed SMU Mustangs | 36c | 110.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 536 | 46.5%249 W · 287 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed SMU Mustangs | 33c | 101.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 100.21$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…c897backed SMU Mustangs | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 233 | 31.3%73 W · 160 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Louisville Cardinals | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 369 | 42.3%156 W · 213 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed SMU Mustangs | 20c | 82.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…c727backed SMU Mustangs | 28c | 78.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Louisville Cardinals | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 934 | 47.9%447 W · 487 L | -19.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed SMU Mustangs | 30c | 67.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeff2…b6ecbacked SMU Mustangs | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…f300backed SMU Mustangs | 27c | 52.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3268…0decbacked SMU Mustangs | 39c | 50.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Louisville Cardinals | 76c | 47.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 383 | 45.4%174 W · 209 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb834…e4c1backed Louisville Cardinals | 64c | 44.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f97…5b07backed SMU Mustangs | 40c | 41.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Louisville Cardinals | 79c | 41.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed Louisville Cardinals | 63c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 464 | 46.8%217 W · 247 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…f9adbacked SMU Mustangs | 46c | 36.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Louisville Cardinals | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 316 | 66.1%209 W · 107 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c2…d3ddbacked SMU Mustangs | 32c | 33.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Louisville Cardinals | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Louisville Cardinals | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,003 | 55.3%555 W · 448 L | +46.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SMU Mustangs vs. Louisville Cardinalsthis page
- SMU Mustangs vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 161.5Over won
- Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-9.5)Louisville Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.