Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9377c9112dd340894c01b347e42eee4d944e436fe1b4f5b63199ee536d14c43a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Louisville Cardinalsof Louisville Cardinals, SMU Mustangs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,399.99 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked SMU Mustangs | 48c | 2,574$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.4 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed SMU Mustangs | 48c | 2,022$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.13 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked SMU Mustangs | 48c | 281.57$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.15 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SMU Mustangs | 65c | 260$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.8 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Louisville Cardinals | 50c | 241.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.65 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…b0f8backed SMU Mustangs | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…f170backed SMU Mustangs | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -9.6wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Louisville Cardinals | 50c | 142.56$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked SMU Mustangs | 47c | 108.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Louisville Cardinals | 53c | 81.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Louisville Cardinals | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Louisville Cardinals | 50c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed SMU Mustangs | 50c | 60.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 252 | 39.3%99 W · 153 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 198 | 51.5%102 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…f300backed SMU Mustangs | 49c | 49.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb0…d1bbbacked SMU Mustangs | 50c | 46.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed SMU Mustangs | 49c | 42.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Louisville Cardinals | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 21.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-9.5)this page
- SMU Mustangs vs. Louisville CardinalsLouisville Cardinals won
- SMU Mustangs vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 161.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.