Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d83d3492698710d591ea370f99e7ee1d9f593e026c6652bbc285b416ccaee90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5081…08c2backed Yes | 24c | 2,658$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 25c | 1,086$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.14 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 80c | 959.58$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.38 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 43c | 635.54$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.64 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed Yes | 57c | 582.76$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.26 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…6364backed Yes | 59c | 462.62$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.63 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked Yes | 5c | 314.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 42c | 309.97$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.87 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 264.92$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 5c | 264.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd290…14f3backed Yes | 26c | 231.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 76c | 229.47$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.29 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 195.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 170.95$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.81 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 157.72$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 46c | 155$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.05 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…154ebacked Yes | 40c | 137.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 136.07$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 46c | 129.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 17c | 124.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 10c | 121.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 78c | 105.86$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed No | 73c | 100.03$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 74c | 82.81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 49c | 60.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1ca6backed No | 46c | 60.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +12.8wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +122%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 70c | 59.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 51.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe949…efccbacked No | 64c | 47.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…7b92backed No | 55c | 45.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…47cdbacked Yes | 57c | 40.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 39.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 69c | 36.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a1…4b1dbacked No | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 44c | 34.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 69c | 30.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 62c | 27.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd5…6e78backed Yes | 42c | 27.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 62c | 24.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 46c | 24.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5536…70ebbacked Yes | 60c | 22.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 79c | 21.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…c545backed No | 73c | 20.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…7d5dbacked No | 69c | 19.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…9fdabacked Yes | 66c | 16.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 29°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 37°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.