Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Missouri State Bears
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dd6bf3d975bfd456aefa0c257efff1ae5dc0b6cbf08720043e36c3173464b55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raidersof Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, Missouri State Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,889 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Missouri State Bears | 28c | 1,851$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.94 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 54c | 1,615$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.96 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Missouri State Bears | 12c | 1,328$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.64 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…5aa7backed Missouri State Bears | 55c | 1,219$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.26 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 44c | 1,021$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.25 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 45c | 999.98$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.99 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 74c | 837.47$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.54 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Missouri State Bears | 37c | 777.27$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.15 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Missouri State Bears | 55c | 672.22$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.29 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Missouri State Bears | 4c | 594.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Missouri State Bears | 54c | 580.13$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.74 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3577…0e8cbacked Missouri State Bears | 56c | 456.74$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.78 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 45c | 398.17$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.99 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 68c | 340.77$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.11 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x917e…eed9backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 52c | 330$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.4 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 45c | 327.14$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.93 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72bc…b24ebacked Missouri State Bears | 48c | 327.12$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.02 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Missouri State Bears | 25c | 301.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Missouri State Bears | 56c | 265.55$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.71 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Missouri State Bears | 17c | 227.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Missouri State Bears | 55c | 189.35$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.14 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Missouri State Bears | 56c | 177.03$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 68c | 165.41$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 66c | 155.23$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 244 | 32%78 W · 166 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Missouri State Bears | 14c | 132.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 934 | 47.9%447 W · 487 L | -19.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Missouri State Bears | 15c | 130.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…0f95backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 45c | 119.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.97 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 44c | 115.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Missouri State Bears | 56c | 109.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.07 | 507 | 45.2%229 W · 278 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Missouri State Bears | 56c | 99.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf43c…d7c3backed Missouri State Bears | 51c | 99.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 491 | 57.2%281 W · 210 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 64c | 95.55$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 252 | 46.4%117 W · 135 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Missouri State Bears | 56c | 88.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…a7b8backed Missouri State Bears | 55c | 71.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 44c | 68.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Missouri State Bears | 45c | 55.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 771 | 42.3%326 W · 445 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…9405backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 45c | 55.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Missouri State Bears | 54c | 54.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 229 | 50.7%116 W · 113 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c3…9792backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 66c | 53.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 270 | 55.6%150 W · 120 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Missouri State Bears | 45c | 51.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 932 | 47.3%441 W · 491 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Missouri State Bears | 27c | 45.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 59c | 39.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 430 | 53.3%229 W · 201 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Missouri State Bears | 39c | 38.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 252 | 39.3%99 W · 153 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf6…2971backed Missouri State Bears | 55c | 36.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Missouri State Bears | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 334 | 45.8%153 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Missouri State Bears | 51c | 28.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Missouri State Bears | 51c | 28.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 241 | 48.5%117 W · 124 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Missouri State Bears | 51c | 28.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Missouri State Bears | 62c | 28.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 140 | 49.3%69 W · 71 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Missouri State Bears | 52c | 25.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 815 | 28.8%235 W · 580 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Missouri State Bears | 56c | 21.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 78 | 65.4%51 W · 27 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.