Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Alverca vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e07f8e29db868a5334354f8aa4793f2aa5eb61f478e71fdb6bbee1e3b6d46db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 1,460$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.57 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Under | 44c | 1,400$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.99 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 1,044$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.71 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 52c | 992.31$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 57c | 697.11$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…f183backed Over | 46c | 688.93$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.91 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 44c | 464.05$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.22 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 48c | 416.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 316 | 61.7%195 W · 121 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 32c | 307.25$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.93 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 44c | 265.93$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.07 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Over | 56c | 264.82$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.3 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Over | 56c | 240$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 42c | 202.72$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.58 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 42c | 190.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.14 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Over | 56c | 188.59$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.61 | 122 | 61.5%75 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 51c | 175.12$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.31 | 582 | 29.2%170 W · 412 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…a10ebacked Under | 41c | 164.86$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.26 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 42c | 156$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.48 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 56c | 141$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 45c | 139.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.91 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 42c | 120.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 852 | 50.4%429 W · 423 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 42c | 107.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 58c | 105.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd53c…5194backed Over | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Over | 29c | 69.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Over | 48c | 60.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf0…4eadbacked Over | 67c | 56.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e95…2bb7backed Over | 40c | 49.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…50adbacked Over | 63c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa880…3839backed Over | 58c | 42.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…44b8backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…5b70backed Under | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 38cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…36d8backed Under | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9413…d004backed Over | 58c | 25.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…1db8backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x967b…46babacked Over | 59c | 25.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…d938backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…6a12backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…fcbdbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 52c | 19.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Alverca vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Alverca vs. Estoril Praia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Alverca vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Alverca vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Alverca vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.