Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Opelka (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e0efffe3a1a1288e7f9182e2adbe73b066b7786338dd3bd8e81c8d7cc688fbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fritzof Fritz, Opelka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,941 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x437c…f458backed Fritz | 50c | 4,000$1,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,002.45 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…d9c6backed Fritz | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Opelka | 48c | 2,237$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.07 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Fritz | 39c | 1,317$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.64 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Opelka | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -12.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5d…4183backed Opelka | 61c | 819.64$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Opelka | 29c | 808.78$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.45 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Fritz | 40c | 509.02$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.41 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Opelka | 50c | 428$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ce…0a8ebacked Fritz | 73c | 410$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.51 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Opelka | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 359 | 32.6%117 W · 242 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6d…71b4backed Fritz | 40c | 400$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Fritz | 39c | 279.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.79 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f15…650dbacked Opelka | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 157 | 62.4%98 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Opelka | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 848 | 57.4%487 W · 361 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Opelka | 59c | 121.95$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked Fritz | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 121 | 42.1%51 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Fritz | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…2ddcbacked Opelka | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Fritz | 40c | 58.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Opelka | 60c | 49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Fritz | 40c | 48.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…0321backed Fritz | 40c | 35.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Opelka | 55c | 31.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Fritz | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Opelka (+1.5)this page
- Miami Open: Reilly Opelka vs Taylor FritzTaylor Fritz won
- Opelka vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Reilly Opelka vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.