Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Auburn Tigers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e124bcc311514d6ccc869570e9865fad6f49608360d5e8e6aa948438414e6f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auburn Tigersof Auburn Tigers, Arkansas Razorbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 14,620$7,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,456.2 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Auburn Tigers | 51c | 11,456$5,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,647.06 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 9,615$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 262 | 54.2%142 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Auburn Tigers | 49c | 8,975$4,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,562.5 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Auburn Tigers | 49c | 8,465$4,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,330.08 | 199 | 50.3%100 W · 99 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 7,039$3,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,549.78 | 369 | 44.2%163 W · 206 L | -19.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Auburn Tigers | 48c | 3,014$1,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,557.32 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 733$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.25 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 48c | 430$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.4 | 401 | 47.6%191 W · 210 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Auburn Tigers | 52c | 368$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.72 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Auburn Tigers | 48c | 292.17$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.93 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 53c | 83.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Auburn Tigers | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Auburn Tigers | 50c | 39.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Auburn Tigers (-2.5)this page
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Auburn TigersAuburn Tigers won
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Auburn Tigers: O/U 171.5Under won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-1.5)Auburn Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.