Premier League · resolved market
Leicester City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e1fd4ce45c95223f783c43ff8ba106ee32c7f7d55e862c7050a694a5d5f455e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 622.02$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.4 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 57c | 325.85$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.82 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Under | 79c | 143$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 79c | 142$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Under | 79c | 122$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Under | 78c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Over | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Over | 21c | 85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 78c | 66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…0ab7backed Under | 78c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Under | 78c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed Over | 41c | 34.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 271 | 41.7%113 W · 158 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed Under | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Under | 78c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…2117backed Under | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Under | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…352cbacked Over | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 66cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Leicester City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Leicester City FC vs. Derby County FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Leicester City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Leicester City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Leicester City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Leicester City FC (-1.5)Derby County FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.