Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e34f49c33a0c304c211563b512b612e03b3549c48f033cd748cc77ada0a722b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- summer bearof Nemiga Gaming, summer bear
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked summer bear | 54c | 3,709$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,708.78 | 541 | 51.8%280 W · 261 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 46c | 3,435$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580 | 970 | 42.2%409 W · 561 L | -20.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249e…4fa6backed Nemiga Gaming | 45c | 1,811$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.79 | 183 | 49.7%91 W · 92 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a9…fc3fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…889fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 56c | 999.99$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.99 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa058…c0ddbacked summer bear | 44c | 971.61$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked summer bear | 71c | 721.61$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.9 | 371 | 60.4%224 W · 147 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…ac95backed Nemiga Gaming | 46c | 267.72$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Nemiga Gaming | 45c | 257.35$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.26 | 1,723 | 41.3%711 W · 1,012 L | -43.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 47c | 146.1$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x401d…23c6backed Nemiga Gaming | 17c | 140$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…934fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 53c | 138$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 135 | 62.2%84 W · 51 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2d…54cfbacked Nemiga Gaming | 39c | 112$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed summer bear | 49c | 96.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 344 | 45.6%157 W · 187 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nemiga Gaming | 43c | 95.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 2,395 | 47.4%1,135 W · 1,260 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 44c | 93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 150 | 42.7%64 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nemiga Gaming | 17c | 81.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1,914 | 47.6%911 W · 1,003 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 26c | 71.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 319 | 50.8%162 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda2b…bca5backed Nemiga Gaming | 20c | 61.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a53…71a3backed Nemiga Gaming | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0286…f61dbacked summer bear | 52c | 50.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7d…f754backed summer bear | 72c | 27.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec6…db1ebacked Nemiga Gaming | 44c | 25.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ee…66ebbacked summer bear | 77c | 21.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs summer bear - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs summer bear (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Open Qualifier 2 Playoffssummer bear won
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs summer bear - Game 1 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.