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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs summer bear (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Open Qualifier 2 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
summer bearof Nemiga Gaming, summer bear
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,781
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,231

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,781 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0160…c757backed Nemiga Gaming1c3,000$30 inLost-$30130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe23b…7c42backed summer bear58c1,736$1,011 inWon+$724.67655.3%42 W · 34 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91b9…889fbacked summer bear38c1,262$476 inWon+$785.9410044%44 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Nemiga Gaming40c1,193$477 inLost-$477.0197042.2%409 W · 561 L-20.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked Nemiga Gaming22c1,163$255 inLost-$254.5337160.4%224 W · 147 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa058…c0ddbacked Nemiga Gaming40c1,037$414 inLost-$414.1616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-62.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked Nemiga Gaming34c747.44$255 inLost-$255.1719745.2%89 W · 108 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked summer bear46c658.59$300 inWon+$358.5954151.8%280 W · 261 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5d9…b188backed Nemiga Gaming15c559.94$84 inLost-$83.9910855.6%60 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+8.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Nemiga Gaming68c508.13$346 inLost-$345.5127351.6%141 W · 132 L+14.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x249e…4fa6backed Nemiga Gaming68c503.21$342 inLost-$342.0818349.7%91 W · 92 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Nemiga Gaming45c450$202 inLost-$202.446540.9%190 W · 275 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedd0…b03abacked Nemiga Gaming65c406.11$266 inLost-$265.8120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae27…6fb2backed summer bear33c360.42$120 inWon+$240.425925.4%15 W · 44 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-7.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0286…f61dbacked Nemiga Gaming46c267.13$122 inLost-$122.085549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Nemiga Gaming15c240.67$36 inLost-$36.11,91447.6%911 W · 1,003 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66ed…d321backed Nemiga Gaming19c238.53$45 inLost-$4534445.6%157 W · 187 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4575…3a3fbacked Nemiga Gaming62c209.8$130 inLost-$130.181764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked Nemiga Gaming34c188.46$64 inLost-$6415042.7%64 W · 86 L-0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Nemiga Gaming67c141.88$95 inLost-$95.2339246.2%181 W · 211 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Nemiga Gaming62c141.13$87 inLost-$87.161,27049.6%630 W · 640 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec96…f5d7backed Nemiga Gaming39c124.92$49 inLost-$48.7238951.9%202 W · 187 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92f8…0e1fbacked Nemiga Gaming23c100$23 inLost-$22.810042%42 W · 58 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68cf…e58cbacked summer bear55c99.99$55 inWon+$44.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed summer bear58c83.06$48 inWon+$34.82,83543.6%1,237 W · 1,598 L-39.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Nemiga Gaming48c81.85$40 inLost-$39.661,72341.3%711 W · 1,012 L-43.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked Nemiga Gaming38c75$29 inLost-$28.513338.3%51 W · 82 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5867…2e20backed Nemiga Gaming29c63.41$18 inLost-$18.3925639.1%100 W · 156 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf437…ff9bbacked Nemiga Gaming22c56.39$13 inLost-$12.6732248.1%155 W · 167 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe540…3e0abacked summer bear80c51.66$41 inWon+$10.452657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe010…5147backed Nemiga Gaming28c50.47$14 inLost-$13.915010%5 W · 45 L-17.5wins-0.35per pick45cpaid-83.7%equal weight24-0.23 edge/pick
0x6b7d…f754backed Nemiga Gaming25c43.49$11 inLost-$10.66875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+28.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ee…66ebbacked summer bear80c40.91$33 inWon+$8.381776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd659…393ebacked Nemiga Gaming66c40.53$27 inLost-$26.81560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x401d…23c6backed Nemiga Gaming53c40$21 inLost-$21.26132.8%20 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-25.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Nemiga Gaming49c30$15 inLost-$14.719855.6%110 W · 88 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed Nemiga Gaming54c25.02$13 inLost-$13.4229550.5%149 W · 146 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed summer bear78c20$16 inWon+$4.483345.1%376 W · 457 L-28.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked summer bear79c13.2$10 inWon+$2.782,39547.4%1,135 W · 1,260 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.