Premier League · resolved market
Will Derby County FC win on 2026-01-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e7fb9641b198e8e4978b786296b94cbf0b21fc31911c36846463d8b25810bfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 3,662$2,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,733.06 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 160 | 24.4%39 W · 121 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 29c | 999.26$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.47 | 531 | 34.5%183 W · 348 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 26c | 767.22$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.74 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 27c | 603.33$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.43 | 533 | 44.8%239 W · 294 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 26c | 306.58$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.78 | 222 | 29.3%65 W · 157 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed No | 72c | 267.14$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.34 | 330 | 57%188 W · 142 L | +17.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 72c | 208.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 152 | 57.2%87 W · 65 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 208.33$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.08 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 29c | 167.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.27 | 108 | 20.4%22 W · 86 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 28c | 136$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 73c | 120$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 396 | 51.5%204 W · 192 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 52c | 109.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba7c…38c7backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked No | 72c | 93$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 74c | 72.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 27c | 70.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Yes | 29c | 67.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 28c | 56.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 26c | 54.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 241 | 46.1%111 W · 130 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 74c | 49.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…a117backed No | 72c | 48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked Yes | 28c | 47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 28c | 43.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 52c | 37.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 734 | 58.6%430 W · 304 L | +47.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 37.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 2,558 | 47.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 250 | 52%130 W · 120 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed No | 74c | 15.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 337 | 53.1%179 W · 158 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derby County FC win on 2026-01-17?this page
- Will Preston North End FC vs. Derby County FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Preston North End FC win on 2026-01-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.