Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4eaa78f0865aa8203391682ef8c98f53a944c77972c34d76a669051fd2c41776
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ivoryof Cloud Dawning, Ivory
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,744 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Cloud Dawning | 15c | 1,621$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.89 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Cloud Dawning | 29c | 747.32$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.15 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Cloud Dawning | 37c | 547.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ivory | 69c | 498.65$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.02 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Ivory | 65c | 436.03$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.18 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…d6a4backed Cloud Dawning | 48c | 358.88$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.51 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Cloud Dawning | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf9…be26backed Cloud Dawning | 24c | 246.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed Ivory | 69c | 205.6$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…263cbacked Cloud Dawning | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 241 | 37.3%90 W · 151 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x018c…0216backed Ivory | 79c | 148.59$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Cloud Dawning | 34c | 147.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Ivory | 58c | 120.07$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed Cloud Dawning | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Ivory | 58c | 117.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Cloud Dawning | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Cloud Dawning | 26c | 108.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Cloud Dawning | 12c | 108.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Ivory | 62c | 99.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6d…f901backed Cloud Dawning | 14c | 97.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked Ivory | 57c | 81.17$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 149 | 62.4%93 W · 56 L | +21.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Cloud Dawning | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac9…4092backed Ivory | 33c | 74.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Ivory | 79c | 60.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Cloud Dawning | 31c | 57.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…4404backed Cloud Dawning | 36c | 54.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Ivory | 58c | 51.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…e255backed Cloud Dawning | 20c | 50.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5031…1ca3backed Cloud Dawning | 30c | 49.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Cloud Dawning | 37c | 44.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Ivory | 72c | 40.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Ivory | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…9c9cbacked Ivory | 66c | 37.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Ivory | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +108.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4716…a2eabacked Ivory | 78c | 33.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Ivory | 77c | 32.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Ivory | 67c | 25.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbda…8bd5backed Ivory | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 132 | 59.8%79 W · 53 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Ivory - Game 1 WinnerIvory won
- Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Ivory - Game 2 WinnerCloud Dawning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.