Bundesliga · resolved market
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ebee0d5d7b1446f4655a27566d60bbc3bddba18afdad458e70b22a1d514b79c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,565 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a3e…b9a4backed Under | 24c | 629.88$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b63…d390backed Over | 76c | 629.88$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec97…1cfabacked Over | 76c | 605.68$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf917…8ca4backed Under | 24c | 605.68$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba3…329bbacked Over | 80c | 558.9$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…980ebacked Under | 20c | 558.9$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1129…9d35backed Under | 24c | 310.53$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35a9…3fdabacked Over | 76c | 310.53$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 21c | 299$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 20c | 165$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 19c | 154.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-2.5)Hertha BSC won
- Spread: TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf (-2.5)Hertha BSC won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Hertha BSC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 3.5Over won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.