Bundesliga · resolved market
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x665f550cc4c70cbd6c1c6e35c5e92cb777f0bd9cead6f169b8c5ffa3f869f7b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,117 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 58c | 4,593$2,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,929.08 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 1,809$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.42 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Under | 42c | 1,483$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.86 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 42c | 755.23$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.88 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3d…fd74backed Under | 43c | 641.84$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.67 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 57c | 532.94$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.19 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 58c | 498.68$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.68 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 42c | 430$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.6 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 42c | 424$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.08 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Over | 56c | 232.09$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.44 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 56c | 204.76$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.09 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc00…79f8backed Under | 42c | 140$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 43c | 124.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 109.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 43c | 83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…2723backed Under | 42c | 54.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 71c | 43.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…0901backed Under | 42c | 42.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…4691backed Under | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-2.5)Hertha BSC won
- Spread: TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf (-2.5)Hertha BSC won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Hertha BSC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 3.5Over won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.