Champions League · resolved market
Will Tottenham Hotspur vs. Villarreal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4edeb0be24d3ee6c905ba217c84bc6d4fd38b930fd2f8d374e0bf2c6593d155c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 25c | 11,197$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,799.82 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 76c | 9,659$7,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,338.51 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bde…8c91backed Yes | 27c | 4,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 75c | 2,815$2,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.86 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 73c | 1,602$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.29 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 73c | 1,151$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.75 | 221 | 47.5%105 W · 116 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 73c | 1,093$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 26c | 851.35$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.35 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 73c | 570.46$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.02 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 416.46$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.03 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…6448backed Yes | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8452…e978backed Yes | 14c | 144.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 74c | 136$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 78c | 121$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…1f03backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf46f…0819backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 73c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Yes | 27c | 44.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…4befbacked Yes | 29c | 36.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 79c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 209 | 48.8%102 W · 107 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tottenham Hotspur vs. Villarreal end in a draw?this page
- Will Tottenham Hotspur win on 2025-09-16?Yes won
- Will Villarreal win on 2025-09-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.