Champions League · resolved market
Will Villarreal win on 2025-09-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6004e63dc405b7fa85a63e5387cd31b0b6400faf49ff0ba376cab2777e082541
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 76c | 15,184$11,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,644.07 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 12,392$2,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,974.04 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed Yes | 25c | 5,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed No | 75c | 4,894$3,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.5 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 25c | 4,049$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.14 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked No | 76c | 3,434$2,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.09 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Yes | 24c | 3,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 25c | 2,888$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb96c…6cc6backed No | 78c | 2,482$1,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.07 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed No | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 142 | 35.2%50 W · 92 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,881$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.72 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 75c | 1,422$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.39 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked No | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 7c | 982.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 75c | 897.51$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.65 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed No | 76c | 779$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.96 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…ddd7backed No | 76c | 724$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…a89cbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 24c | 397.54$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.13 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eff…8490backed No | 77c | 371.21$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +47%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Yes | 23c | 315.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.49 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed No | 75c | 303.82$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.95 | 129 | 21.7%28 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed No | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…0b66backed No | 76c | 234.21$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…4befbacked Yes | 12c | 225$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…6b43backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…5662backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Yes | 23c | 155.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…a119backed No | 77c | 155.84$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f9…213ebacked No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc3…da8abacked No | 77c | 90.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cf…f5aebacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3185…937abacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc723…8742backed Yes | 24c | 82.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46f…0819backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…c886backed Yes | 25c | 68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 77c | 48.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked No | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…3f6abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…fe26backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 74cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Villarreal win on 2025-09-16?this page
- Will Tottenham Hotspur vs. Villarreal end in a draw?No won
- Will Tottenham Hotspur win on 2025-09-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.