F1 · resolved market
Will Mercedes achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f203d7f76bae63d8f3c7770a325375c9714edc580e89bb17d8deb3e7fa1b2f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,822 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70d7…1334backed Yes | 68c | 210.1$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 34c | 207.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.09 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…b0c1backed No | 38c | 172.41$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.88 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x059a…6a07backed No | 42c | 94.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +105%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…cfc9backed Yes | 63c | 79.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 62c | 40.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 59c | 35.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 48c | 34.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d04…3a1bbacked Yes | 61c | 32.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked Yes | 60c | 29.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad0…cdc2backed Yes | 61c | 29.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x484c…cfa5backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe89…e3c0backed Yes | 59c | 23.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89e…fd41backed Yes | 64c | 20.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mercedes achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Ferrari achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Red Bull achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.