Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C or higher on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f2ec7eda83c2b9976e8c8edad313002afed785d2745a40d71d48b2739ca8521
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 1,791$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 739.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 27c | 202.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 73c | 177.87$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 14c | 176.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 67c | 175$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 27c | 174$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 161.78$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 29c | 143.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 18c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 113.09$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 110.15$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 32c | 109.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 36c | 106.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 20c | 97.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 26c | 95.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 27c | 87.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 67c | 81.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 67c | 73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 19c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 29c | 58.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…d0b8backed Yes | 36c | 55.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 73c | 55.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 54.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 25c | 46.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 67c | 38.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 80c | 34.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 20.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 79c | 15.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C or higher on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.