Premier League · resolved market
Manchester City FC leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f8dd7ccf740e275ce3a67171b54eaca93064f384cfeb070898c62cc9075850a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,401 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked No | 1c | 1,645$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 47c | 1,187$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.76 | 210 | 56.7%119 W · 91 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7a…2292backed No | 2c | 778.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 48c | 558.11$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.03 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Yes | 50c | 532.2$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 49c | 520.17$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.11 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffc…4487backed Yes | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf959…6026backed Yes | 53c | 310.98$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 49c | 291$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.68 | 451 | 42.6%192 W · 259 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 103 | 35%36 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142e…f6e4backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Yes | 50c | 192$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…0512backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b4…7ef9backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 357 | 43.1%154 W · 203 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…ce69backed Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 58cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2d…8452backed Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 52c | 52.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 180 | 59.4%107 W · 73 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 47.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 408 | 21.8%89 W · 319 L | -53.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x37e0…024ebacked No | 47c | 41.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 189 | 50.3%95 W · 94 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 194 | 55.2%107 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b02…ccf1backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…8973backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1892backed Yes | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 48c | 21.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 112 | 32.1%36 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC leading at halftime?this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Draw at halftime?No won
- Nottingham Forest FC leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.