Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fb54448a8486ec3c827a42b03f5260c3911059c148f2ee68dce531f3b7176bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- summer bearof summer bear, Hive
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3e5…519dbacked summer bear | 72c | 1,334$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.92 | 127 | 64.6%82 W · 45 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked Hive | 22c | 365.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed summer bear | 64c | 305.61$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.79 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…156fbacked Hive | 28c | 295.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…bab9backed Hive | 22c | 261.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked Hive | 27c | 250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked summer bear | 58c | 236.26$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.82 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked summer bear | 65c | 189.14$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked summer bear | 65c | 175.1$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Hive | 10c | 126.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked summer bear | 58c | 107.95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed summer bear | 61c | 104.36$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Hive | 45c | 96.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed summer bear | 77c | 83.12$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Hive | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Hive | 39c | 69.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec9…1873backed Hive | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 198 | 39.4%78 W · 120 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Hive | 39c | 43.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed summer bear | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group Asummer bear won
- Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winnersummer bear won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.