Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x982acd039e8e0c09593f2497e6a0fd9c652bd00174c6f74b481e506eaa3971d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- summer bearof summer bear, Hive
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Hive | 55c | 2,063$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.95 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked summer bear | 58c | 1,234$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.59 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Hive | 39c | 972$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.08 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked summer bear | 45c | 623.79$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.44 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked summer bear | 49c | 509.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.99 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed summer bear | 50c | 464.31$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.31 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Hive | 40c | 446.15$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.38 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Hive | 45c | 444.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked summer bear | 62c | 439.42$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.42 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Hive | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed summer bear | 57c | 239.11$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.43 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked summer bear | 77c | 235.95$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked summer bear | 53c | 191.67$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked summer bear | 77c | 190$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Hive | 20c | 171.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked summer bear | 53c | 169.52$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fe…e21fbacked summer bear | 65c | 130$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Hive | 16c | 87.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Hive | 55c | 69.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked summer bear | 44c | 67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…2229backed summer bear | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…1454backed Hive | 39c | 55.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Hive | 25c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked summer bear | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Hive | 45c | 24.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Hive | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group Asummer bear won
- Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 2 Winnersummer bear won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.